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June 26, 2009
∞
msg:
Steve Jurvetson thinks this is the most important chart in technology business.
(It’s an updated version of Ray Kurzweil’s published work, posted with permission)
In this abstraction of Moore’s Law, Kurzweil plots computational power on a logarithmic scale, and finds a double exponential curve that holds over 100 years (a straight line would represent a geometrically compounding curve of progress).
In the modern era of accelerating change in the tech industry, it is hard to find even five-year trends with any predictive value, let alone trends that span the centuries.
Ray argues that through five paradigm shifts – such as electro-mechanical calculators and vacuum tube computers – the computational power that $1000 buys has doubled every two years. For the past 30 years, it has been doubling every year.
Each dot is the frontier of computational price performance of the day. One machine was used in the 1890 Census; one cracked the Nazi Enigma cipher in World War II; one predicted Eisenhower’s win in the 1956 Presidential election.Each dot represents a human drama. They did not realize that they were on a predictive curve. Each dot represents an attempt to build the best computer with the tools of the day. Of course, we use these computers to make better design software and manufacturing control algorithms. And so the progress continues.
found via my favorite flickr blogger, jurvetson
Andrew’s $0.02: This chart is most impressive for all the reasons outlined above, but I’d add that it’s wild to see which medium dominated which time period and for how long. When will we grow beyond the constraints of the Integrated Circuit (if ever)? And, how much does a newer medium pull from an older medium in terms of design paradigms?
June 25, 2009
∞
Remember this game? It was actually pretty good (though I was terrible at it).
I looked Moonwalker up on eBay and apparently it has turned into a killer collectors’ item. Of course, I shouldn’t expect anything less based on the box art alone.
June 24, 2009
∞After three days of ducking the press — and telling the Wall Street Journal that Steve Jobs was not listed as a patient there — Methodist University Hospital in Memphis finally admitted Tuesday that Jobs did in fact receive a new liver at their transplant facility.
From a Fortune article on Steve Jobs.
I find this introductory paragraph absurd and completely representative how invasive the recent Steve Jobs’s health media blitz has been. Methodist University Hospital did *not* “finally admit” anything. A better way to phrase Methodist University Hospital’s statement is they “Violated HIPAA.” Steve Jobs’s health is none of our business, and there is a whole world of legislation that intends his privacy should be respected.
What is our business (as public shareholders) is the effect of his health on his role at Apple, and Apple has been forthcoming with that information. We were told when to took a leave of absence, and we were informed about realistic expectations of a return date.
The actual details of his health is his personal matters which are legally protected and should be properly respected.
June 19, 2009
∞ ♫
[Flash 9 is required to listen to audio.]
Listening to J Dilla’s Ruff Draft this morning.
June 18, 2009
...VC Regulation
Just read in the WSJ (no point in linking since I’m sure it will be behind a paywall in a short period of time) that the VC industry’s likely getting regulated. Comments from the Obama administration indicated that any private pool of capital-under-management in excess of $30M will have to register with the SEC and be subject to regulations and inspections accordingly.
I can see the need for increased regulation of private capital, but I disagree that the threshold for regulation should be an arbitrary capital-under-management number. The common theme amongst all the financial train wrecks we’ve encountered over the past year have been due to debt leverage, not capital under management. Lehman Brothers was leveraged 40-1 according to their final balance sheet, the average American took out (or was duped into) mortgages larger than he/she could afford, even the US Government debt is so high that each citizen’s share is a shocking $37,247.58, which isn’t helped by the fact that in 2007 the average American annual rate of saving dipped negative.
So, instead of regulating private pools of capital in excess of $30M, we should be regulating private pools of capital that are leveraged up past 3-1 (or some other low, arbitrary threshold). I don’t know how leveraged the venture capital industry is on the whole, but a rough guess would be about 1.1-1 or even 1.05-1. Venture debt is a very tiny portion of an early stage startup’s financing plans; typically 95% of capital (if not more) in an early stage startup is raised via equity sale.
Barack, I know you follow my tumblr :) So take a kind word of advice and focus on debt leverage, not capital under management.
June 16, 2009
...Kobe 2008 vs Kobe 2009
Here is a comparison of Kobe Bryant’s Post-Season stats for 2008 and 2009:
2008 Kobe Post Season (21 games): 30.1 pts, 5.7 reb, 5.6 ast, 3.3 TO, 22.0 FGA, 9.2 FTA, 47.9 FG%, 81 FT%, 30 3FG%, 41.1 MPG.
2009 Kobe Post Season(23 games): 30.2 pts, 5.3 reb, 5.5 ast, 2.6 TO, 23.0 FGA, 8.6 FTA, 45.7 FG%, 88 FT%, 35 3FG%, 40.9 MPG.
Talk about consistency! It’s like he copy-pasted the 2009 season from 2008. If only it were that easy.
(via TheSportsGuy)
The Big Picture is the most engaging form of journalism I know today. It’s a curation of incredibly photo-journalism from sources like AP, Getty, etc that tell the story of the news much more effectively than text. The coverage on the Iranian election protests is very powerful and well worth a cruise. The picture above is my favorite from the coverage… great angle, well framed, it drives my gaze all over the place as I follow the shapes, lines, and points.
Kudos to Alan Taylor, the developer and editor of the site, who started this project on a shoestring budget as a Boston.com skunkworks project and turn it into the best part of their web property.
June 15, 2009
...Mini Golf in Queens Teaches Astrophysics
“I want to go to there:” A mini golf course in Queens is opening in front of the Hall of Science. Mini golf in NYC is rare enough that this is excellent news alone, but it gets better. This is no normal mini golf course… From the NYTimes:
This is believed to be the world’s first mini-golf course designed to teach astrophysics. Possibly even to tweens.Just tweens…? What about twenty-somethings that really dig mini golf and science? I hope the Hall of Science doesn’t frown upon a $2 Nassau to make things more interesting.
June 12, 2009
...Libraries in a Digital World
I played around with various iPhone e-reader apps today trying to learn more about that market, and it made me wonder: what’s going to happen to libraries? If we’re all acquiring digital licenses and downloading books through the air onto our e-readers, will there still be a library?
I don’t really care about the idea of a big brick-and-mortar building full of books. If the library of the future contains no bound dead tree pulp covered in ink, that would be fine by me. But, I’m worried about the economics that libraries provide people today. If there are no libraries 30 years from now, what is the economic picture of access to information? Is there still a place that people can go and read books for free?
I can’t picture how “library borrowing” works economically in a digital book world. If I’m given the choice between “borrowing” a digital copy of a book on my Kindle for two weeks at no charge, or buying the book on my Kindle, it’s kind of a no-brainer that I’m always going to borrow. So, I’m sure that content owners will not license digital borrowing. But, then where can I consume digital books in the same why I consume library books today?
I know there’s a bunch of library tech conferences out there, I wonder what the librarians of the future think about this subject? I have heard people argue that Larry Page and Sergey Brin are the future librarians of the world, so I guess their answer would be that Google Books is the future of libraries. And, I’m sure Tim O’Reilly has thought about this extensively as a publisher and a net-native; if anyone knows an interview or blog post where it talks about this, I’d love to see it.
